How to Analyze March Madness Survivor Pools
March Madness survivor pool strategy is more game-theory driven than brackets themselves. These formats introduce path-dependency and long-term planning to the mix.
Most survivor pools during the big dance will follow a similar format:
– Only allowed to use a team once
– 2 picks a day during the Round of 64 games
– Using the seed totals as a tie-breaker in the event this is needed
Now, you’ll want to look at this in a similar light as you do your bracket if you want to seriously make a run for the money. You’re not trying to predict the tournament, just highlighting leverage and survival spots and taking advantage of those.
March Madness Survivor Pool Strategy For Small Sized Contests
In smaller pools, you’re able to stick to chalk a little bit more. Considering this pool will not contain too many entries, the seed total tiebreaker will not come into play as often, and you’ll only need to think about 1-2 rounds ahead of your picks. Still, make sure you know which teams you like to advance, who your opponents will likely choose, and to not block yourself from having the option of a decision.
Medium Sized Contests
In contests with a bit more entries than the smaller contests (think 25-30+), you’ll need to start being a bit more contrarian early on. Those tiebreaker seed totals become more important, and you’ll want to identify teams that you can use as one-round bridges, or teams that you expect to win their first game and lose their second. This is a key March Madness survivor pool strategy that I’ll touch upon this strategy further down in the article!
Large Sized Contests
Pools of 100+ people, you’re going to want to go full game theory mode. This is where making educated guesses on your opponents selections is going to be important, as you’ll likely want to fade the popular picks when you can survive doing so. Path dependency in this format is everything, mapping out your picks multiple rounds in advance will give yourself the most leverage further down the road. You definitely do not want to be put in a scenario where your only team left to choose in a certain round is an 8-point underdog.
The “Round After” Strategy
Thinking simply, it is advantageous to your entry if a team that you advanced from becomes eliminated, which automatically does not allow your opponents to use that team. Using the current bracket for example, if you think that Wisconsin would lose to Arkansas in the round of 32 (assuming both teams advance), it might be wise to use Wisconsin in the first round. This would eliminate Wisconsin from any future use by anyone, putting you one step ahead of the competition.
Adding onto this March Madness survivor pool strategy even further, it’s plausible to use a lot of the same teams from specific regions if you don’t anticipate any of them making any deep runs. This strategy would leave your path dependency pretty open until deep in the tournament, in which you would have an entire half of the bracket to choose from.
Favorite Plays for Thursday 3/19
Houston Cougars (Eliminating Chalk)
Although they are a perennial powerhouse who played in the National Championship game just one year ago, they’ve been placed in the bottom half of a bracket that is loaded with teams that could make a run. The Saint Mary’s team sitting in the 7-seed could pose some real issues for the Cougars in the round of 32. Assuming Houston were to advance to the Sweet 16, I really think that the Illinois Fightin’ Illini could take care of business and knock them out here. Given that Houston is a 2-seed, most entrants will save this team for use later in the tournament – if you fade that ideology, you’ll be in a much more advantageous position than your opponents.
Michigan State (Fading the Public)
Izzo in March. A lot of people will remember the Tom Izzo coached Michigan State Spartans as a title contender year in and year out. Although this team is very good, I am a huge fan of the Louisville Cardinals if they were to match up in the round of 32. Many people in the public space are taking a hot USF team over Louisville in their first game in the round of 64. The public is all over this spot because of some storylines that don’t actually affect how the game is played on the court. If you were to utilize Michigan State in this spot, you could see real benefits if Louisville knocks them out in the round of 32.
TCU/Ohio State (Larger Pools)
This game is truly going to be a bit of a coin flip, with the current odds favoring the Buckeyes by 2.5 points. This TCU team is tough on defense, but will be the shortest team in terms of height that Ohio State faces all year. Looking at path dependency and ahead to the round of 32 in this game, the winner will take on the scorching hot Duke Blue Devils. If you were to nail the winner of this game, you’ll automatically have 8 or 9 points to your seed total, and your pick will likely be eliminated in the next round.
Overview
Survivor pools reward the players who think two steps ahead. While everyone else is picking the safest team available each round, the winners are the ones who’ve already mapped our their path to the final rounds. Use this strategy, trust the process, and check back at ChalkLine HQ throughout the tournament for updated strategy and leverage spots. Follow us on X @ChalkLineHQ !
